The CMA yesterday published its final decision in the investigation into the award of the Northern Rail franchise to Arriva. After starting the Phase 2 investigation with 1,068 bus/rail overlaps and 167 rail/rail overlaps, in its Provisional Findings the CMA determined that there was potential substantial lessening of competition (SLC) on 24 bus flows and 4 rail flows. However, the CMA has substantially reduced the scope of its SLC finding between the Provisional Findings and the Final report, overturning the provisional SLCs on all bus/rail overlaps and on one of the four provisional rail/rail overlaps. This was due in part to evidence supplied by Arriva and its advisers, which showed that the financial incentives for Arriva to raise its prices post-merger were limited or non-existent on those overlaps.
 
The CMA has determined that price caps will need to be applied on the three rail flows, which together make up less than 0.5% of Northern Rail franchise revenues.
 
Oxera advised Arriva on this merger inquiry. 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cma-looks-to-cap-fares-on-three-rail-routes