Portrait of Matthew Shepherd

Matthew Shepherd : Principal

Matthew has worked across the transport sector, including in demand forecasting, economic impact assessment, litigation, and policy advice. He has led projects using the Green Book and WebTAG to produce economic and financial cases for clients as diverse as the UK Department for Transport (DfT), Gatwick Airport, and clients across Europe. Outside the GB rail industry, he has produced demand forecasts for bus concessions in the Netherlands and contributed to the business case for transport infrastructure in continental Europe. He is a member of the UITP’s Transport Economics Commission.

Matthew speaks English.

Tel: +44 (0) 1865 253030

Matthew's specialisms include:

professional experience

  • Directed an econometric study for the Passenger Demand Forecasting Council on the relationship between unplanned disruption and train operator revenue (2017)

  • Advised a client on the realism of demand forecasts for a rail infrastructure project to inform the client’s engagement with the relevant government body (2017)

  • Led the team producing a Total Cost of Ownership model on behalf of a client to inform the client’s business plan (2017)

  • Assisted a client in understanding the economic impacts of increasing exports from the UK (2016)

  • Reviewed economic analysis on behalf of a party applying for capacity on the GB rail network (2016)

  • Advised a technology company on the evidence for discrimination to inform engagement with policy officials in the Local Authority (2016)


  • Gudgeon, L., Martins-Tonks, R., Shepherd, M. and Solomon, P. (2015), ‘Do passengers respond to fare changes? Does inflation matter?’, Papers and Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Frankfurt, 2015.

  • Magee, T., Martins-Tonks, R. and Shepherd, M. (2013), ‘Responding slowly to change? Passenger rail demand in Great Britain’, Papers and Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Frankfurt, 2013.

  • Wright, I., Meaney, A., Shepherd, M. and Booth, A. (2012), ‘The Bus Passenger Survey and concessionary fares in the UK—more light in the darkness?’, Papers and Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Glasgow, 2012.

  • Hoe, T. and Shepherd, M. (2011), ‘Cutting public expenditure: medium and long term implications for transport infrastructure’, Papers and Proceedings of the European Transport Conference, Glasgow, 2011.


  • MSc Economics and Econometrics, University of Exeter

  • BA Hons Economics, University of Exeter

Latest Insights:  Matthew Shepherd

The second article in this two-part series on Social Discount Rates (SDRs), as used in project and policy appraisal, discusses new evidence on how the rate at which the SDR…
The social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial component of the UK government’s approach to project and policy appraisal. Government guidance has stipulated the same SDR (3.5%) since 2003. In…
In March, the UK Department for Transport (DfT) published ‘Decarbonising Transport: Setting the Challenge’, a policy paper outlining current and planned policies needed to decarbonise the UK’s domestic transport sector.…
For many of us, workplace communication has moved online due to the coronavirus pandemic. What does this mean for traditional transport infrastructure that is geared towards enabling greater employment density?…

The Economics of Climate Change at COP26

Oxera will be presenting on The Economics of Climate Change at COP26—the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference—in Glasgow, on one of the world leaders’ days on 2 November 2021. The aim of COP26 is to increase global alignment on climate action. We will be demonstrating to the world’s governments,… Read More

Image depicting The Economics of Climate Change at COP26