Profile

A specialist in finance & valuation and data analytics, Alex advises clients on questions of valuation, risk and impact assessment in relation to infrastructure assets. He has provided expert input in a wide range of jurisdictions and cases, including investment due diligence, commercial and regulatory dispute resolution, contract renegotiation and policy appraisal.

In addition to advisory work, Alex regularly shares his expertise with students and practitioners through lectures and masterclasses; for example, he guest lectures at Birkbeck, University of London and routinely teaches as part of Oxera’s Utility Finance course.

Selected project experience

  • Supported a consortium of investors through the process of economic due diligence for the construction of a greenfield transport infrastructure project (2019–)
  • Advised a dominant regional telecoms group on the appropriate regulation of its investment in a new generation access network (2019)
  • Conducted a third-party review of the cost–benefit analysis underpinning the TGR/BSUoS reform in the UK (2019)
  • Supported a UK energy holding with an economic submission on a newly proposed energy investment regulation regime in the UK (2018–19)
  • Led valuation and risk analysis in the context of a power purchasing agreement dispute (2018–19)
  • Conducted an external review of Ofgem’s modelling underpinning the retail energy cap regulation in the UK (2018)
  • Led the design of a financial model for a European multi-country railway joint venture (2018–19)
  • Advised on cost of equity estimation for the RIIO-2 controls (2018–19)
  • Supervised risk analysis for a major European transport infrastructure management company (2018)
  • Assisted a nuclear generator with an economic submission to the UK government (2017–18)
  • Conducted financial analysis for a rescue and restructuring package of an eastern European airline (2017–18)
  • Supervised the financial analysis to determine the optimal size of an interconnector project in Europe (2017–18)
  • Prepared economic expert evidence in a follow-on damages claim against one of the main producers of underground and submarine power cables (2017–18)
  • Conducted risk analysis of the revenue stream for a European interconnector (2017)
  • Supported the analysis of the economic and social impact of a greenfield rail project in Europe (2016–17)
  • Valued structured finance products (synthetic CDOs) for the purposes of a mediation between the investors and a rating agency (2016–17)
  • Analysed the potential effects of Brexit on the UK electricity market (2016)
  • Assisted in the regulatory submissions on the cost of capital of gas distribution in Northern Ireland (2016)
  • Conducted the valuation and risk analysis of a multi-billion sports franchise as part of the shareholder dispute resolution process (2015–17)
  • Estimated the potential level of traffic for a greenfield rail project in Europe (2014–15)
  • Supported an economic expert witness in their review of a $15bn reputational damage claim (2014–15)
  • Conducted the financial analysis underpinning the re-financing strategy for a group of Italian water companies (2014–15)
  • Produced a model for the analysis of competitive threats to a major UK telecoms group (2014)
  • Conducted comparative risk analysis of potential regulatory regimes for a European TSO (2014)
  • Assisted a major infrastructure management entity in developing a business plan for submission to the European Commission (2013)
  • Conducted quantitative risk analysis for a number of UK water companies in light of the PR14 regulatory review (2013)
  • Assisted a major European telecoms company in responding to a regulatory consultation on cost of capital and efficiency targets (2013)

Qualifications

  • Alex Smirnov is a CFA® and CAIA® charterholder
  • MSc Financial Economics, University of Oxford, UK
  • BSc Economics and Finance, University of London, UK
  • BSc Economics, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia