Profile

Alexander is a member of Oxera’s Finance and Analytics teams, and works on a wide range of issues surrounding investable infrastructure. On the finance side, Alexander has advised clients on questions of valuation, risk measurement and mitigation, financial engineering, and the social and economic impact of infrastructure projects. On the analytics side, Alexander has helped clients to create forecasts for strategic decision-making and to estimate the parameters of counterfactual scenarios for the purpose of dispute resolution. He has taken a leading role in the development of Oxera’s energy market modelling capabilities. Prior to joining Oxera, Alexander completed an internship at Standard and Poor’s rating services, and gained an MSc in Financial Economics from the University of Oxford, UK, in which he focused on finance and data analytics. In addition to advisory work, Alexander delivers guest lectures and masterclasses in the fields of valuation, financial modelling and quantitative finance.

Selected project experience

  • Led valuation and risk analysis in the context of a power purchasing agreement dispute (2018–)
  • Led the analysis of Ofgem’s modelling disclosure in the context of the retail energy cap regulation in the UK (2018–)
  • Led the design of a financial model for a European multi-country railway joint venture (2018–)
  • Bespoke Oxera course for HM Treasury: asset valuation (2018)
  • Advised on cost of equity estimation for the RIIO-2 controls (2018)
  • Supervised the quantitative analysis of risks faced by a major European transport infrastructure management company (2018)
  • Advised a nuclear generator on the submission of economic evidence to the UK government (2017–18)
  • Conducted financial analysis in the context of the restructuring of an eastern European airline (2017–18)
  • Supervised the valuation analysis of an interconnector project in Europe (2017–18)
  • Supported an expert witness in a follow-on damages claim against one of the main producers of underground and submarine power cables (2017–18)
  • Birkbeck, University of London, MSc Finance: guest lecture on volatility modelling (2017)
  • Conducted revenue risk analysis for an interconnector in Europe (2017)
  • Oxera course on Utility Finance: asset valuation and financial modelling (2014–)
  • Supported the analysis of the economic and social impact of a greenfield railway project in Europe (2016–17)
  • Valued structured finance products (synthetic CDOs) in the context of an investor claim against a rating agency (2016–17)
  • Conducted the valuation and risk analysis of a global sports company in the context of a shareholder dispute (2015–17)
  • Forecast the feasible level of traffic for a greenfield railway project in Europe (2014–16)
  • CFA Institute: masterclass on alternative beta estimation (2016)
  • Analysed the potential effects of Brexit on the UK electricity market (2016)
  • Supported the regulatory submissions on the cost of capital of gas distribution in Northern Ireland (2016)
  • Assisted in valuing lost profits of an asset manager that was claiming over $15bn in reputational damage (2014–15)
  • Conducted financial modelling for a group of Italian water companies in order to analyse a possible re-financing strategy (2014–15)
  • Constructed a strategic industry analysis tool for a major UK telecoms company (2014)
  • Bespoke Oxera course for Water Industry Commission for Scotland: introduction to cost of capital estimation for utilities (2014)
  • Conducted comparative quantitative risk analysis of potential TSO regulatory regimes (2014)
  • Assisted a major infrastructure management entity in developing a business plan, to be submitted to the European Commission for approval (2013)
  • Conducted quantitative risk analysis for a number of UK water companies in light of the PR14 regulatory review (2013)
  • Analysed the relative profitability of bus schemes in different regions (2013)
  • Assisted a major European telecoms company in responding to a regulatory consultation on WACC and efficiency (2013)

Qualifications

  • Alexander Smirnov is a CAIA® charterholder
  • Alexander Smirnov is a CFA® charterholder
  • MSc Financial Economics, University of Oxford, UK
  • BSc Economics and Finance, University of London, UK
  • BSc Economics, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia